China corn imports decline following lower demand livestock sector

China corn imports in general turn to reducing tendency in 2024/25, infirm consumption is the primary driver of China’s dramatic drop in corn imports, particularly the livestock sector.

Policy mediations to support declining domestic corn prices play a role... altogether China corn imports may pull back to a five-year low in 2024/25. 

There is another reason behind for China corn import decaling, usually it is overlooked or ignored. Today, Chinese consumers focus on healthier lifestyle, it means that consuming more vegetables and fruits, less meat products, As consumer pullback keeps livestock margins tight, demand for corn has slowed, that indirect led to frail corn feed demand.

Self reliance is another stronger reason for weaker demand for China corn imports, for the last few years, under the slogan: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.”   Regrading food supply, Chinese government implemented new direction, self-sufficiency is the key, which also led to less corn imports. Look at this recent article from Dairy Site...     

Policy interventions to support declining domestic corn prices amid weaker consumption are the primary driver of China’s dramatic drop in corn imports.  a related forecast for 2024/25 (Oct-Sep) China corn imports is lowered 3.0 million tons to 10.0 million tons.

particularly the livestock sector, which is grappling with weaker consumer spending, income growth slower. this is particularly acute in the urban areas that drive livestock product demand.

spending is reflected in falling market prices for beef and pork, which combined cover more than 70% of China’s meat consumption. Additionally, the Chinese government revised the optimal sow herd size lower to balance supply against current demand. Lower meat prices are forecast to cause live cattle and swine inventories in China to decline from 2024 to 2025.

China is attempting to support domestic prices with a supply side approach. SinoGrain – the holder of state grain reserves – has stopped auctions of imported corn and raised purchases of domestic corn for its reserves7.

Until consumption rebounds, China is likely to play a reduced role in global corn trade through the end of 2024/25.....See more from dairy site  here. 

Altogether, China corn imports may take years to see the changes again, even may never change back to historical higher corn imports’ level. Because China imparks on innovative approaches, implements a new policy over corn and grains import. Government focusses on a new direction of self-reliance, and self -sufficiency.

Until China market corn demand pick up, less corn import through the end of 2024/25 will be expected China corn imports situation may impact on global corn trade at least in calendar year 202/25.